Thursday, December 17, 2009

Mayon's Big Eruption Feared!

By Rey M. Nasol, Joanna Los Baños
Inquirer Southern Luzon
First Posted 00:49:00 12/17/2009

Filed Under: Volcanic activity, Evacuation(General)


LEGAZPI CITY—Two lava domes have formed at the crater of the Mayon Volcano, raising concerns among government volcanologists over the possible extensive damage should these collapse and a major eruption occur.

Renato Solidum, director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), said the domes were “growing” and that an aerial survey must be conducted to determine the hazards these would pose to residents living within the danger zone.

Mayon was under Alert Level 3, but Phivolcs might recommend raising it to Level 4 if the volcano’s condition continued to worsen. Level 3 on the five-point scale means a hazardous eruption is likely in the very near future.

Solidum warned that the lava domes, which might collapse anytime, meant that the permanent and extended danger zones should be “no man’s land” at once because even a lava trickle could produce ashes and rockfalls.

Areas within a 6-kilometer radius from the crater have been declared “permanent” danger zone.

Lava poured down Mayon on Wednesday, reaching 700-800 meters downslope below the crater, Solidum said.

Two episodes of ash puffs recorded at about 8 a.m. indicated that magma was very close to the crater and on its way up for a possible eruption, he added.

This could mean that thousands of villagers will spend Christmas in crowded evacuation centers.

As of Wednesday noon, 30,761 people or 6,559 families from 20 villages had been moved to shelters, officials said.

‘Gates closed’

The “gates have been closed” to farmers who insist on tending their crops and trying to harvest in the danger zone, said Cedric Daep, head of the Albay Public Safety and Emergency Management Office.

Solidum said harvesting of crops should no longer be allowed because of the threats of deadly secondary pyroclastic flows, ash falls and rolling incandescent materials.

During the past 24 hours, lava quietly flowed and incandescent fragments rolled down 3-4 km along the Bonga gully at the southeastern slope.

The Phivolcs recorded 78 volcanic earthquakes and tremors and sulfur dioxide emission of 750 tons per day.

Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales, who has been overseeing evacuation efforts since Tuesday, said “farmers should not insist on returning to their farms while Mayon is restive.”

“Let the tomatoes rot there. Anyway, Albay Gov. Joey Salceda is prompt in attending to their needs and the national government will provide them assistance,” Gonzales said.

Zero-casualty target

Officials plan to evacuate 47,285 people, involving 9,946 families, in 45 villages as part of their zero-casualty target in case of an eruption.

A total of 72,858 more people or 16,232 families are also targeted to be moved in case of rain and bad weather because of the threat of lahar and mudflows from fresh deposits of ashes along Mayon’s gullies and river channels, Salceda said.

Seventy-seven farmers were killed when Mayon erupted in 1993. This, Salceda said, should remind people of the danger of pyroclastic flows, “which is beyond escape because it moves faster than cars and instantly burns all living things along its paths.”

Worst-case scenario

In a worst-case scenario, Solidum said, the number of evacuees could grow to 120,413.

Bernardo Alejandro, regional director of the Office of Civil Defense, said 45 military and private vehicles were ready to move evacuees.

At the city’s Gogon Elementary School, more than 3,000 residents of Barangay Bonga arrived at classrooms spruced up with Christmas decorations by pupils late Tuesday afternoon. One classroom houses 25 families, or about a hundred people.

Barangay Bonga, one of the villages at the foot of Mayon and within the 7-km extended danger zone, is directly threatened by lava fragments rolling like a red-orange carpet down the Bonga Gully.

Christmasy welcome

“I did not remove the decorations anymore. Even if they are in the evacuation center, I want them to feel the Christmas spirit,” said Rose Alamo, 53, a teacher of the school.

Christmas lights, garlands and lanterns hang from the ceilings and windows of the classrooms. The doors bear “Merry Christmas” greeting and Santa Claus posters.

“I was hoping we could have a happy Christmas, but now that we are here, I don’t know what we are going to do,” Alicia Nuñez, 54, said. She had been excited to celebrate at her home with one of her sons coming from Manila.

“I just told my son to come home even if we are in the evacuation center so we could be together,” said Nuñez, who earns a living by selling bananas at the public market.

First night for evacuees

On their first night at the evacuation center on Tuesday, children were not able to sleep because babies kept on crying.

Becky Gunay, 62, a retired teacher, said the babies might be feeling uncomfortable. “But there is nothing we can do. We just have to be patient,” she said.

The only food assistance given to the evacuees were packs of pan de sal for breakfast.

In Manila, the US Embassy Wednesday strongly advised American citizens in the country to “avoid the area of the Mayon Volcano.”